Brent crude futures added $3.41, or 3.2%, to $109.34 in early-afternoon New York trading on Friday. U.S. benchmark WTI climbed $2.74, about 2.8%, to $100.67 — back in triple-digit territory after last trading there on September 21. NBC News reported Brent pushing past $109, its priciest since mid-September and within cents of a five-month peak. Across the week, WTI advanced 8.6% and Brent 4.1%. It is a violent reversal from October 2, when Brent slid under $100 intraday before recovering to settle at $102.25. Diesel futures gained more than 1% on Friday, and the average U.S. gallon of regular gasoline sat at $4.32 in the morning. Equities felt the heat: the S&P 500 lost more than 1% and the Nasdaq sank 2% by midafternoon as energy costs repriced.
Two supply shocks landed on the same day. Violence near the Strait of Hormuz has intensified sharply across the last 10 days. Tehran is retaliating for Washington's port blockade and the fresh sanctions package unveiled last month. Analytics firm Kpler says Iran's escalating strikes have throttled crude shipments out of the Gulf. The firm expects flows to recover only slowly and unevenly absent a broader political settlement.
The products market took its own hit. Kyiv walked away from the energy-site truce President Trump had announced and hit a Russian refinery on Thursday. Two industry sources said the Ryazan facility halted one of its main crude-processing units following a drone strike. Diesel was already scarce — September refining margins had reached $95 a barrel. Even a joint IEA stock release exceeding 20 million barrels, agreed on Thursday, failed to calm traders. Vitol's Asia head Kieran Gallagher put numbers on the squeeze at the Sibcon conference. The Middle East fighting has taken 800,000 tons a month of fuel-oil supply out of the Persian Gulf, Iran included. Ukrainian strikes on Russian plants removed another 1 million tons a month.
| Level | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance | $110.00 | round number; NBC: Brent "cents away" from five-month high |
| Friday print | $109.34 | Reuters 12:41 p.m. ET intraday |
| Support | $102.25 | October 2 weekly close (Yahoo daily) |
| Support | $98.43 | October 2 intraday dip below $100 |
Why it matters
This is no longer just an oil story — it is an inflation story. U.S. gasoline at $4.32 a gallon feeds straight into consumer price data that has already run hot. September CPI printed 3.7% year on year and September PPI hit 6.3%, with gasoline up 20.3% in a single month — enough to drive more than 80% of the goods-price rise. Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, told Reuters the Middle East conflict keeps resurfacing. He doubted Moscow could deliver meaningful diesel volumes at all, and that uncertainty is keeping bids under the market. Wells Fargo's Mason Mendez was equally skeptical that a diesel arrangement between Washington and Moscow would ever materialize. The Fed meets October 27-28 with a rate hike firmly on the table after this week's inflation prints. Every extra dollar on crude tightens the policy bind.
What to watch
- Whether the IEA's 20-million-barrel fuel release reaches markets fast enough to dent diesel and bunker prices
- Gulf crude flows through Hormuz — Kpler expects a slow, uneven recovery without a political deal
- Ryazan's restart timeline and any further Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining
- U.S. gasoline prices, which feed the next inflation prints ahead of the October 27-28 FOMC meeting
- Thursday's Houthi missile strike on Aden's presidential palace, which killed five and widened the conflict map
MarketRadar take
The balance of risk in crude has flipped from demand worry to supply disruption in the span of two weeks. Friday's move tightened both legs of the market — crude and products — at once. That is why even the IEA release could not cap prices. The $110 level in Brent is the line to watch. A weekly close above it would confirm a breakout rather than a spike; a quick fade back under $102.25 would signal the October 2 lows still anchor the market.
