Bank of America has set a new Coinbase target of $203, up from $174, keeping a Buy rating, as the bank refined forecasts ahead of third-quarter earnings. Analyst Craig Siegenthaler's note covered three retail trading and crypto platforms: Robinhood's target rose to $156 from $140 with a Buy rating, while eToro's was cut to $39 from $46 with a Neutral rating. Coinbase shares climbed as much as 2.8% in early trading after the note landed.
The bullish call rests on stablecoins, not trading volume. BofA pointed to stronger revenue Coinbase can earn from stablecoin balances after September's quarter-point rate increase by the Federal Reserve. Higher rates lift the interest earned on the reserves backing dollar stablecoins, and Coinbase participates in that income through its relationship with USDC issuer Circle. The bank raised its earnings estimates for the exchange for 2027 and 2028 on that basis.
Higher rates, higher reserve income — a revenue line that no longer depends on how busy the trading floor is.
That distinction matters because the near term is weaker. BofA trimmed its third-quarter 2026 forecast for Coinbase to a loss of $0.24 a share from a loss of $0.22, and cut its full-year estimate to a $0.73 loss from $0.71. The reason: soft crypto trading volumes across most of 2026 — even though Bitcoin rose 43% and Ether climbed 70% during the quarter itself. Prices went up while volume stayed down, and that disconnect is now the central debate around crypto equities.
BofA's target has swung with the crypto-equity cycle this year:
| When | Price target | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | $340 | starting point |
| May 2026 | $218 | cut 36% |
| Sept 24 / Oct 5, 2026 | $203 | raised from $174 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | $203 | reaffirmed ahead of earnings |
Coinbase stock has fallen nearly 50% in the past 12 months, though it recovered to around $188-191 by early October. BofA's $203 implies only about 6% upside from there and sits below the $208 average analyst target. A measured upgrade, not a moonshot.
Why it matters
The stablecoin-income thesis reframes how investors should treat Coinbase. The stock has long traded as a leveraged proxy for crypto prices and volume, but BofA argues a structural, rate-driven revenue stream now matters just as much — a fundamentally different valuation conversation.
Timing adds pressure. Coinbase reports third-quarter results after the closing bell on October 23, and it has undershot earnings forecasts for three quarters running. Consensus expects a loss of $0.20 a share on roughly $1.77 billion of revenue — a slightly softer loss than BofA's own $0.24 forecast. The report will show whether trading activity picked up into quarter-end and, more importantly, how much of the revenue mix came from the stablecoin line BofA is betting on.
The upgrade also lands while Coinbase is fighting on another front: it recently agreed to halt sports-event prediction contracts in Michigan under a stipulation with the state's gaming regulator, as covered in our Coinbase Michigan story. Prediction markets, rival exchanges raising war chests — see OKX's $25B funding round — and a bruising equity market give management plenty to address on the October 23 earnings call.
What to watch
- Q3 earnings, October 23 after the close: consensus calls for a $0.20 loss on about $1.77B in revenue; BofA's bar is a $0.24 loss. The stablecoin revenue line is the number to watch.
- Trading volumes into year-end: BofA trimmed its near-term volume forecasts despite the 43% Bitcoin and 70% Ether rallies in Q3 — a rebound would challenge the bank's cautious near-term call.
- Fed policy, Oct 27-28 meeting: the whole thesis leans on elevated rates; any dovish shift would eat into the stablecoin reserve income BofA is counting on.
MarketRadar take
BofA's upgrade is notable for what it is not: it is not a call for a trading-volume boom. It is a rates call dressed as an equity note. The bank is saying Coinbase has acquired a durable income stream from stablecoin reserves that survives even when the trading floor is quiet. That thesis holds only while rates stay elevated — which is why the Fed's October 27-28 meeting matters as much as the October 23 earnings report.
Watch the price-volume divergence too: Bitcoin up 43% in a quarter while exchange volumes stay soft suggests retail participation has not returned with force. If Q4 volumes pick up, BofA's trimmed near-term forecasts could prove too cautious. For now, the stance is measured: bullish the business-model shift, neutral on the near-term beat.
