The people who move the world's gold are expecting higher prices, and this time they put a number on it. Delegates polled at the LBMA's Sorrento, Italy conference forecast the metal at $5,013 a troy ounce within 12 months. It was the 25th edition of the industry's flagship annual gathering. That is roughly 20% above the $4,170 changing hands in London when the poll was taken. MarketRadar's own feed confirmed $4,170.10 on the day, up just under 1%. The call comes with gold languishing about 26% below its January peak. The slide followed the Fed's September 25-basis-point hike, with rates staying higher for longer.
The same delegates see silver climbing to $97 an ounce from around $61 — our snapshot pegged spot at $61.60. Platinum drew a $1,914 call against $1,706, and palladium $1,415 versus roughly $1,174.
For context: gold is down about 3% this year after leaping 64% in 2025, its strongest annual gain since 1979, and silver has fallen 14% in 2026 after a 147% run last year.
One number deserves a pause: this exact conference, meeting in Kyoto a year ago, put gold at $4,980 within 12 months. The metal sailed past that level in January, printed $5,595, then sank right back to $4,170. The LBMA poll has a long tradition of reading the room rather than the chart. Treat it as a sentiment gauge, not a prophecy.
Why it matters
A consensus call from the LBMA floor is the bullion industry's sentiment index. It reflects what refineries, banks, and traders are positioning for. Right now that positioning is firmly higher. The September jobs report printed 29K against 90K expected. Hiring collapsed after the Fed's 25-basis-point hike on September 16. Restrictive rates still reward anyone holding a non-yielding hedge like gold. Add the tighter Asian supply picture constraining physical flows, and the industry's mood reads clearly: the dip is a buying opportunity.
Maybe.
The $5,013 figure is still about 10% below January's $5,598 peak. The industry's base case is a recovery rally, not a new record. HSBC trimmed its own 2026 gold forecast this week while flagging that the metal is approaching a floor — the bank world is bullish with one hand and cautious with the other.
What to watch
- The October 28 FOMC decision — the Fed hiked in September; whether the weak September NFP changes the November path sets gold's next direction.
- LBMA clearing and central bank flow data for October — the physical bid underwrote January's record.
- $4,100–$4,150 support — gold's current price cluster; a break lower would challenge the bullish poll narrative.
- Silver's ratio — a $97 silver call next to $5,013 gold implies the gold-silver ratio compressing toward 52 from 68 today.
MarketRadar take
The poll tells us the industry's mood: higher, but not record-higher. Do the math the delegates didn't spell out — $5,013 from $4,170 is a 20.2% rally that still leaves the metal about $585 short of January's peak. The most interesting number in the poll isn't gold at all; it's silver at $97. From $61.60 spot that is a 57.5% run. It would drag the gold-silver ratio from today's 67.7 down to 51.7. Ratios that low don't show up on safe-haven bids alone. They imply the room is betting on industrial demand roaring back at the same time, especially solar and electronics. Silver ran 147% in 2025 before this year's 14% pullback, so the metal has the crowd's attention. Watch silver's physical market for tightness before taking the gold headline at face value.
