Silver had a brutal week. Spot silver settled Friday at $57.86 an ounce, down 5.3% for the week between October 12 and 16, after swinging through an 8.4% trading range and touching its lowest close in almost 11 months midweek. Gold, by contrast, absorbed the same shock far better: spot gold closed Friday at $4,177.82, off just 0.5% on the week.
September CPI came in hot at 3.7% year-on-year versus 3.6% expected, and the 0.6% monthly rise was the biggest in five months. Traders instantly repriced the Fed's next move: odds of a hike at the October 27-28 meeting jumped from around 22% to roughly 43-44%, per CME FedWatch.
How the week unfolded
The week began with rate-hike expectations calm: September payrolls had printed a soft 29,000 against 90,000 expected, keeping October hike bets subdued. "Expectations of an October Fed rate hike remained subdued ahead of U.S. economic data this week, but markets are still pricing in a strong chance of a hike in December," Critical Metals CEO Tony Sage said in a note ahead of the CPI release. "This could keep gold at risk." Front-month gold futures settled down 0.3% at $4,152.90 a troy ounce Tuesday; silver slipped 1.6% to $59.161. Saxo Bank analysts noted key resistance for gold around $4,235.
Then Wednesday's CPI landed. Headline inflation printed 3.7% against 3.6% expected, core climbed to 2.6% from 2.4%, , with gasoline's 9.1% jump responsible for more than half of the month's gain. "At this point it portends that the Fed is more likely to raise interest rates," David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, told Reuters. Spot gold fell 1.6% to $4,091.06, its lowest since October 7 and its third straight losing session, while spot silver plunged 5.6% to $56.13. The dollar jumped 0.7% and the 10-year yield spiked toward 5.33%.
Thursday brought a twist: producer prices climbed 1.3% on the month — the sharpest monthly jump since early 2022 — yet metals rebounded, with gold up more than 1% as the dollar softened and yields eased. At an IMF gathering, Chair Kevin Warsh praised US economic strength but offered no hint on whether more hikes were coming. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called the week's inflation data "discouraging"; Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned the Fed might "hike more aggressively" if inflation expectations deteriorated; and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said the central bank could wait and assess developments after its September increase.
Friday delivered the rebound that saved gold's week. Warsh stayed tight-lipped in Bangkok, and October hike odds cooled to 17% from 28% the day before, while December hike odds stood at 89%. Silver rose 0.7% to $57.86 on safe-haven demand as equities weakened; the 10-year settled around 5.09%. The greenback was on track for its first down week in five.
Why it matters
Silver's split personality — part haven metal, part industrial input for solar panels and electronics — magnified every swing this week. That sensitivity cuts both ways: silver's Friday rebound came partly from equity-market weakness pushing money toward hard assets, the same mechanism that could keep it volatile into the October 27-28 meeting.
For perspective, gold is still roughly 21% below its record high of $5,318.40 set on January 29, while silver sits nearly 50% below its 52-week high of $115.08 from January 26 — it has given back most of its early-October climb to $61 in five sessions. Longer-term support factors remain intact, our weekly outlook noted: Julius Baer's Carsten Menke told Reuters that continued central-bank purchases, concerns over US government debt, and the rising cost of servicing it could benefit gold over time.
The gold-silver ratio widened from 69.2 to 72.2 across the week — silver underperformed gold by about 4.8 percentage points as the market priced its industrial exposure into the rate-hike repricing.
The week in numbers
| Session | Key event | Gold move | Silver move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 13 | Positioning ahead of CPI | Futures -0.3% to $4,152.90 | Futures -1.6% to $59.161 |
| Wed, Oct 14 | Hot CPI: 3.7% y/y vs 3.6% expected | Spot -1.6% to $4,091.06 (lowest since Oct 7) | Spot -5.6% to $56.13; futures hit ~11-month low |
| Thu, Oct 15 | PPI +1.3% m/m, biggest in 4.5 years | Rebounded over 1% | Bounced with gold on softer dollar |
| Fri, Oct 16 | Warsh tight-lipped; Oct hike odds cool to 17% | Closed $4,177.82, -0.5% on week | +0.7% to $57.86, -5.3% on week |
Sources: HDFC Sky, Reuters, WSJ/Dow Jones market data. Sunday spot levels from MarketRadar's market snapshot.
MarketRadar levels
From the week's verified range and Sunday morning spot quotes:
| Asset | Resistance | Current | Support |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (spot) | $4,221 (week high) → $4,235 (Saxo level) | $4,166 | $4,075 (week low, tested) |
| Silver (spot) | $59.16 (Oct 13 settle) → ~$61 (week open) | $57.1 | $56.13 (spot low) → $55.55 (futures 11-month low) |
Gold is trading just under Friday's $4,177.82 close and above the midpoint of its weekly range — constructive given the week's news flow. Silver's Friday close sits only about 2% above its Wednesday spot low, leaving it closer to a retest than gold.
What to watch
- October 27-28 FOMC meeting: October hike odds sit at 17% after cooling from near 44% midweek, but December odds are 89%. Any hawkish surprise keeps yields and the dollar bid — bad for both metals.
- 10-year Treasury yield: touched 5.33% after CPI, settled at 5.09% Friday. A retest of the high would renew pressure on non-yielding assets.
- Silver's industrial bid: Friday's rebound leaned on safe-haven flows as equities weakened. Watch solar and electronics demand signals.
- India flows: several large Indian mutual funds suspended bulk gold-ETF subscriptions on October 15 amid import and rupee concerns — worth watching through the festive buying season.
MarketRadar take
Gold lost only 0.5% through two hot inflation prints and finished above the middle of its $4,075–$4,221 range. Silver is the fragile one: a 5.3% weekly loss, an 11-month low printed midweek, and a Friday close barely 2% above that low. With December hike odds near 89%, upside for both metals stays capped until the October 27-28 meeting passes — silver needs to hold $56 to avoid another leg toward the $55 area, while gold's line in the sand is the $4,075 weekly low.
