Currency markets — majors, crosses, central banks and the forces moving FX.
Bloomberg reports Bank of Japan officials lean against a back-to-back hike on October 30, with swap markets pricing 10% odds for October but 88% for a December move. USD/JPY held near 158, with the dollar slipping against every major currency.
ING's FX team says the dollar is stretched across the G10 — overvalued by 1.1% on its own model — but sees no macro trigger yet for the rally to turn.
EUR/USD fell to 1.1155 on October 12, a fresh 2026 low, as the dollar rose against every major currency and Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack called for a fast move to restrictive policy.
The Indian rupee strengthened about 1% on Monday to 95.77 against the dollar — its best single-day move since April — as the RBI's weekend package and suspected state-bank dollar selling squeezed the market's greenback bid.
EUR/USD climbed back above 1.120 as the dollar cooled, but ING strategist Francesco Pesole says the bar for a real dollar correction is high — with a December Fed hike still priced, 1.110/1.112 is the next test lower.
Silver reclaimed $60 an ounce on October 9, rising about 2% from Thursday's $59.19 reference, after a washout to $58.50 — its weakest in two months — as softer Treasury yields and a weaker dollar pulled buyers back.
Japan rebooted its DOGE-style spending review to find cash for Prime Minister Takaichi's pledges, as 10-year JGB yields sit at multi-decade highs and the yen holds near 157.85 per dollar.
The euro slid to 1.1182 as the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32%, its highest in over two decades, while Fed minutes pointed to another hike this year and European bonds joined the selloff.
Japan's August wage data beat expectations at 3.8%, yet a steep downward revision to July's figures and fresh fiscal-expansion promises from Tokyo sent the yen on a full round trip back toward 158.00.
Rabobank strategist Jane Foley argues the Bank of Japan's steady rate increases are quietly stripping the yen of its status as the carry trade's funding currency — but with a 275bp gap to US rates still open, USD/JPY keeps grinding toward 158.
Silver hit two-month lows near $60.70 in Asian trade before climbing back toward $61.50 after long-dated US yields pulled back from their highs.
EUR/USD touched 1.1161 in Asian trade on Monday, its weakest since May 2025, as reports of a possible Spanish snap election and heavy hedge-fund selling piled pressure on the euro.
