Sports-only prediction market Novig says its celebrity-led ad push has translated directly into trading activity. In an October 3 interview with CNBC, co-founder Jacob Fortinsky compared the twenty days before and after the platform's September 9 "Just Sports" launch: trading activity grew roughly 94%, first-time deposits more than tripled, and September's active-user base ran 96% ahead of August and 260% ahead of a year earlier. App downloads rose over 187%.
The campaign's centerpiece is actress Sydney Sweeney, whose commercial draws a hard line around the product: sports only — no wagering on wars, deaths, or politics. That narrow focus is what convinced Sweeney herself to approach Novig for an ownership stake, though the company has not disclosed how large it is. Fortinsky admitted the combined punch of the ad and football season opening produced more volume and new accounts than he had expected.
Not everyone cheered. Some women athletes argued the commercial undermined how female competitors are perceived. Fortinsky pushed back, saying the ad was designed to explain Novig's offering rather than speak for women in sport, and expressed pride in the final result.
Why it matters
Liquidity is the engine of a prediction market: deeper books attract more traders, which tightens prices and feeds the loop. Novig's figures suggest one well-timed campaign can kick-start that loop. Its Instagram audience expanded by about half in under two weeks after the spot, and for a stretch it drew more U.S. search interest than long-established rivals Kalshi and Polymarket.
Investor appetite tells the same story. Novig is now targeting a raise at a $2 billion valuation, Journal reporting says — four times the level attached to its $75 million Series B just eight months ago. Money is chasing the event-contract wave.
What to watch
- The raise: how much money Novig closes, and on what terms, will show whether investors view the campaign spike as sustainable.
- The legal front: the firm has already sued several states to keep its sports contracts under federal oversight, while Washington is said to be weighing tighter rules on prediction-market advertising — the very tactic that fueled Novig's rise.
- The calendar: close to seven in ten of Novig's September contracts were tied to football. The spike needs the season to keep delivering.
The competitive picture
Independent analysis of notional weekly volume (September 10-16) puts the surge in perspective:
| Platform | Weekly volume | vs. Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $13.6 billion | 100% |
| Polymarket (U.S.) | $1.9 billion | 14.0% |
| DraftKings DKeX | ~$415 million | 3.1% |
| Rothera | ~$332 million | 2.4% |
| Novig | ~$317 million | 2.3% |
Even after its burst, Novig handled about two cents of every dollar Kalshi did that week — fast growth from a modest base.
MarketRadar take
The sector read is bullish: a months-old platform can quadruple its valuation on one campaign and one football season, confirming that event contracts are becoming mainstream financial plumbing. The Novig-specific read is more guarded. Volume sits on a single sport, momentum on a single campaign, and the business model on a legal theory that is still being tested in court. Attention converts to deposits quickly — but it can exit the same way.
