The S&P 500 finally cracked its August high on Tuesday morning. The benchmark rose as much as 0.6% to touch 7,817.13, moving past the 7,816.7 intraday record set on August 13, while the Nasdaq extended its own record run with a fresh all-time print during the session. Technology did the lifting again — Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta and Tesla all advanced, with SpaceX adding to Monday's 7%+ surge.
One number explains the bid. Nvidia closed Monday at a record with a market capitalization of $5.76 trillion, the most valuable company ever by a wide margin, after a 2.1% gain that carried the whole AI complex with it.
Three macro levers are lined up behind equities this week, and each one matters. September's payrolls report — 29,000 jobs against a 90,000 consensus — has cut the market-implied chance of a Fed rate hike at the October meeting to 24% from 70% a week ago, and the 30-year Treasury yield came back down to 5.626% on Tuesday, having spiked to a 22-year peak of 5.702% on Monday. Oil is cooperating too: Brent slipped more than 1% to trade near $98.58 after the G7 pledged an emergency supply release and Middle Eastern exports outside Iran climbed back above 81% of pre-war levels, taking pressure off margins. And the calendar does the rest — third-quarter earnings begin next week with the large banks, and Goldman Sachs strategists put consensus S&P 500 earnings growth at 27%, with more than half of it coming from companies spending on AI infrastructure. LSEG's tally is even stronger, above 30% year over year.
| Index | Monday record close | Tuesday (11:39 ET snapshot) | Distance above record |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,773.95 (+0.66%) | 7,842 (+0.88%) | +68 pts / +0.88% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,477.31 (+1.05%) | 27,714 (+0.86%) | +237 pts / +0.86% |
| Dow Jones | 51,267.90 (+0.18%) | 51,627 (+0.70%) | +359 pts / +0.70% |
Why it matters
The last record push was narrow; this one is wider. Ten of the eleven S&P 500 sector indexes rose on Monday, led by materials at +1.22% and communication services at +1.14%, which suggests buying has spread beyond the mega-cap AI names. The caveat is participation: just 16.8 billion shares changed hands on Monday versus a 20-session average of 17.3 billion, so the records were set on thinner-than-normal volume. Thin-volume records can hold for weeks, but they also leave less cushion if the Wednesday FOMC minutes or bank earnings next week disappoint.
What to watch
- The September FOMC meeting minutes land Wednesday, the next direct read on how the committee sees policy after the weak jobs print.
- Fed officials are speaking through the week, with markets watching whether the December hike stays priced in.
- Large US banks open third-quarter earnings next week; consensus expects 27-30% S&P 500 growth.
- The 10-year Treasury yield still sits above 5.3%, its highest since 2002 — a persistent headwind if it re-accelerates.
MarketRadar take
The set-up favors continued index strength into earnings: a soft payrolls print has removed the October hike threat, yields have cooled from multi-decade highs, oil is retreating, and the AI capex cycle is about to be tested by results. The risk is the same trio that hurt stocks this summer — a hawkish FOMC minutes, a 10-year yield back above 5.35%, or bank earnings that fail to confirm the 27% growth story. Directionally, US equities look bullish into earnings season, with the August S&P 500 highs now acting as the first line of support.
