Wall Street just banked the biggest six months in its history. US securities firms earned $45.9 billion during the year's first half, according to a report from New York comptroller Thomas DiNapoli released Tuesday — a 51.3% jump from the same stretch last year. Hold that pace through December and full-year profits top $90 billion, a new annual record that would also clear the inflation-adjusted peak set in 2009. For scale, all of 2025 produced $65.1 billion, itself a record and more than 30% above the prior year. A dealmaking revival did most of the lifting, alongside heavy trading revenue from choppy markets, steady loan growth and an IPO calendar that finally woke up.
The pace math is what stuns.
To break $90 billion, the industry needs roughly $44.1 billion in the second half — slightly less than it already printed in the first. The record is Wall Street's to lose.
Underwriting revenue surged 68% in the first half, per the report, while global mergers and acquisitions hit $2.8 trillion — the biggest half-year total ever recorded. Artificial-intelligence capital spending has kept deal pipelines full, and volatile sessions handed trading desks their best conditions in years. A looser regulatory climate under the Trump administration gets credit too for thawing the deal market. DiNapoli said the industry stayed resilient "despite geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty." The backdrop helped as well: the S&P 500 pushed to fresh records near 7,827 this week, feeding the equity issuance and trading volumes that banks live on.
Why it matters
These figures reframe the story financial stocks told all quarter. Bank shares lagged the broader market in Q3 as rising rates squeezed lending margins, yet the industry's actual profits were compounding underneath. The tax windfall explains why Albany and City Hall track this report so closely: Wall Street funneled $7.8 billion into New York City's fiscal-2026 budget, a 15.8% increase on the prior year, and $26.3 billion into state coffers, up 28.5%. The sector now generates roughly 19% of the city's entire economic output. Headcount reached a record 207,400 after 7,000 jobs were added, and the average salary hit $561,770 last year — which turns December bonus season into the next visible data point after 2025's $49.2 billion bonus pool. The catch is the same one hanging over every bank stock: the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.35% on Monday, its highest since 2002.
What to watch
- Q3 bank earnings later this month: do the big banks' reported numbers confirm the comptroller's pace?
- The 10-year yield — DiNapoli's own report warns that rising rates "may dampen profitability" if dealmaking cools or firms' interest costs climb.
- Year-end deal flow: M&A and IPO volume through December decides whether $90 billion is a floor or a ceiling.
- The October Fed meeting: hike bets faded after the weak September jobs report, but the Fed raised rates in September and its stance stays hawkish.
- December bonus announcements — the traditional real-economy spillover of a Wall Street boom year.
| Measure | Figure | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| H1 2026 profits | $45.9B | +51.3% vs H1 2025 (DiNapoli report) |
| Implied H1 2025 base | ~$30.3B | MarketRadar computation from the +51.3% print |
| 2025 full year | $65.1B | Prior nominal record, up 30%+ |
| 2026 full-year pace | $90B+ | Would beat the inflation-adjusted 2009 record |
| Global M&A, H1 2026 | $2.8T | Highest half-year total on record |
| Underwriting revenue | +68% | First half of 2026 |
MarketRadar take
This print is bullish for financial stocks on fundamentals: the deal pipeline that produced these numbers is still open, and the underwriting and M&A figures argue the Q3 rate-driven selloff in bank shares priced in fear rather than facts. The $44.1 billion second-half hurdle is modest — anything close to a normal deal-closing season clears it. Still, DiNapoli named the threat himself: if the 10-year keeps climbing from 5.35% into a hawkish Fed, dealmaking cools and interest costs eat directly into these profits. Financials have the numbers; yields hold the veto.
